The third favorite looks like it has a chance, but in reality it gets lost in the race.
In horse racing, a lot of bets go on runners that look “in the race” without being truly strong. The third favorite sits exactly in that spot. It is not ignored, but it is not dominant either.
If you watch enough races, this runner comes up again and again. It attracts money, it looks competitive, but when the race actually plays out, it often gets beaten without ever really threatening.
That’s why a lot of bettors end up laying the third favorite.
What Is Lay the Third Favorite
To lay the third favorite means betting that the runner with the third lowest odds will not win the race. That’s the basic idea.
When you lay a horse, you are taking the bookmaker side. You are saying this horse will lose.
For example, if you lay at odds 6.00 with €10:
- you win €10 if the horse loses
- you lose €50 if the horse wins (this is your liability)
Example race:
Constitution Hill → 3.20
State Man → 4.50
Irish Point → 6.00
Others → higher odds
Irish Point is the third favorite. If you lay it, you win if any other horse wins the race and lose only if Irish Point wins.
It comes down to how strong this position really is.
Where the Third Favorite Sits in the Market
The third favorite sits just behind the top two in the market.
- the favorite is the main runner
- the second favorite is the main challenger
- the third favorite comes next
On paper, this looks strong. But in reality, it is a very crowded position.
The third favorite is not strong enough to dominate, but not weak enough to be ignored. That’s the problem. It’s in the middle without really having an edge.
In most races, it is just one of several runners with similar chances. The odds make it look clearer than it actually is.
Why the Third Favorite Is Often a Weak Spot
This is where it becomes clear.
The third favorite usually needs too many things to go right.
- the favorite must underperform
- the second favorite must not take control
- the rest of the field must not produce a surprise
That is a lot to ask from one horse.
In bigger fields, this becomes even clearer. There are simply more ways for it to lose. The third favorite does not stand out enough to justify its price.
It still gets backed because it looks competitive, but most of the time, it is just part of the pack.
This is why lay the third favorite can be a very practical horse racing lay strategy.
Real Examples of Lay the Third Favorite
Lay the Third Favorite in Horse Racing
Race: Cheltenham Handicap
Galopin Des Champs → 3.80
Bravemansgame → 5.20
Shishkin → 7.00
Others → 8.00+
Shishkin is the third favorite. It looks like a solid option and often gets support because it sits just behind the top two.
But if you look at the race properly, the favorite is strong, the second favorite is close behind, and there are several other runners not far off.
You see this kind of setup a lot. The third favorite looks involved, but it is not clearly ahead of the rest.
In this kind of race, laying Shishkin means:
- you win if the favorite wins
- you win if the second favorite wins
- you win if any outsider wins
You only lose if that one horse wins.
This is exactly how lay the third favorite works in real situations.
Second Favorite vs Third Favorite
The second favorite and the third favorite sit close in the market, but they are very different.
The second favorite usually needs the favorite to fail. If that happens, it often becomes the main contender.
The third favorite needs more than that. It needs:
- the favorite to fail
- the second favorite to not take over
- and no outsider to step in
That is why it has more ways to lose.
When to Use This Strategy
- races with many runners
- clear favorite and second favorite
- third favorite close in odds to other runners
- situations where the market feels crowded
How to Apply Lay the Third Favorite
- Find the third favorite close to race time
- Check how close the rest of the field is in odds
- Look at whether it stands out or blends in
- Decide entry and exit before placing the bet
This is a simple lay betting strategy. Entering before the race is safer, while in-play can offer better prices but also increases risk.
Always check the liquidity in the market. If there is not enough money available, your bet might not get matched at the price you want. In bigger races, liquidity is usually higher, which makes execution easier.
Some bettors let the bet run, while others take profit early. What matters is having a clear plan before entering.
ROI vs Risk vs Difficulty
| Factor | Level Explanation |
| ROI | Medium to High From repeated small edges |
| Difficulty | Medium Needs reading race structure |
| Risk | Medium Controlled vs laying favorites |
When we say ROI, we mean how much you can expect to win over time compared to what you risk. With lay the third favorite, you are not trying to win big in one race. You win small amounts often, because this type of runner loses more times than people expect. Over many races, those small wins add up.
Difficulty is about how easy it is to spot the right situation. This strategy is not automatic. You still need to look at the race and understand if the third favorite really has an edge or if it is just sitting there because of the market. After some practice, this becomes much easier to read.
Risk is about what happens when you are wrong. When you lay, you always have a bigger loss compared to your win because of the liability. That means one bad result can wipe out several small wins. That’s why stake control is key.
In simple terms:
- you win often, but not a lot each time
- you lose less often, but when you do, it hurts more
- the goal is to stay consistent over many races
FAQ
Is this better than laying the second favorite?
Not always. It works better in crowded races. The second favorite is stronger when there is a clear gap in quality.
What kind of races should this be used in?
Races with many runners and close odds. That’s where the third favorite gets lost.
When does this go wrong?
When the third favorite is actually stronger than it looks. Late money is usually a sign.
Is this one of those runners that can catch you out?
Yes. It will win sometimes That’s always going to happen. The edge comes from the long run, not one race.
In a Nutshell
The third favorite looks like it’s in the race, but most of the time it’s just another name on the list. That’s where these lays come from. You see it enough times, you stop overthinking it.
Stay tuned for more on LayHorseBetting and always bet responsibly.